In this position, black has several good moves. But if we trust Extreme Gammon (and we should..) then only one of them is actually good, all others are severe blunders. So, dear Backgammon enthusiast, what shall it be?
(whitespace so you can think without spoilers, if you wish)
Let’s have a look at the overall situation here. Black is way behind in the race. Even if I would have rolled 66 instead of 11 I would still be behind. At the same time, black has a white blot on his 1 point to harass, enough opportunities to start this harassment, and good chances that white will dance long enough so that black catches up in the race and wins.
Looking at some possible moves and how they can contribute to said blot harassent.
- 17/13: good idea, doubles coverage of the outfield in case white escapes with 43, 45, 46. But the deadly 44 should be avoided.
- 17/14 17/15: same idea, without being double hit by a 44. Still, white can easily move his blot forward with a 4, even move out after 43, move to a fairly safe win with 44.
- 7/5(2): makes a clean 5pt board, while retaining some winning chances should white be able to jump out with a 6. Problem is: 66 immediately loses, and 61, 62, 63, 64 put black into the awkward situation that he has no direct hit and might need to move one of his checkers off the 17 point in the next move, risking hit and loss.
- 4/1* 2/1: also makes a clean 5pt board, hits white so he has to first come in. Also not bad. But if white manages to roll a 55, he’s almost surely won; and after any 5 he has great fighting chances asw well.
- 7/5 6/5 2/1*: over the board I ruled this one out immediately. Why leave a blot against a white 4 pt board if I can avoid it? Still, this is the correct move, simply because white has first to come in with an ace (10/36 probability only) and then roll a 6 to move out. Black is so far behind in the race, it makes a big difference if white can enter behind my prime only or mostly ahead of the prime.
My lesson from this position: if you’re down in the race, it is worth small risks to ensure your opponent stays behind your prime.
For completeness, here’s XG2’s figures(Roller++ level): My move was 4/1* 2/1. A whooping -0.37 blunder. 17/13 is even worse – a -0.46 blunder. I would have thought, 17/14 17/16, achieving the same and avoiding the 44 double hit, should be much better, but it isn’t: -0.44. 7/5(2) is the best of the worst, losing only -0.24 points of equity.
So, what did you play? And why? Comments are open 🙂