Came across this position in a recent match on DailyGammon.
This 66 can seal the win. But how to do it best? Even in such a position with several great moves I managed to squeeze in a blunder worth 0.2 points of equity. So, what move shall it be?
I went for the wonderfully aggressive 13/7(2) 8-2(2)*. My reasoning was: hit now, get checkers to support the attack, maybe I can close my opponent out (or later capture the second blot) and win a gammon.
Turns out, my reasoning was somehow nearly correct – my move wins about 12% gammons/backgammons. But the best move is 15/9 (2) 13/7(2), making a 5-point prime. Nearly as good: 20/14(2), 13/7(2), getting the back checkers to safety. Both moves win nearly 72% of the games, while mine wins only 65% of the games. Seems I underestimated continuations where blue gets his checker out, and I roll something like 6-1 or 5-2 and bring me into a situation where I can be hit.
So sometimes hitting greedily is not the best move…