Another position that I found tricky. Black to play 66.

Now if a 66 would move three checkers, or even only two, things would be easy. 22/16(3) or (2), done, happy. But with four I can either go 22/16(2), 22/10 and face a double hit, or I can try to hit on the 4, move one checker to the 16 point, 22/4*, 22/16. Or maybe move two checkers 22/10(2) and face a blitz with the remaining checker?

What would you do?

Okay, here’s the solution according to XG2. The best move is risking the double hit. Logic is probably:

• 22/4*, 22/16 offers white too many chances to get a grave advantage immediately. Every 4 hits, every 5 or 6 in combination with a 1,3,4,5 hits the other blot. That’s 50% hits that will most likely bring black into serious trouble. And the double hits after 41, 43, 44, 45 look like “game over” for black. XG says this is a -0.15 blunder.
• 22/10(2) faces too much of a blitz danger. 11, 31, 41, 51, 43, 53, 54 are just too many shots that make the point and have a superior position. Not as bad as the previous move (-0,089) but still a blunder.
• The right move is 22/16(2), 22/10. The reason is probably that if white hits he can’t make a point or improve his board at the same time. Given white’s pretty poor prime and two-point board, getting hit is no immediate desaster, black can still hope for a lead. And if white fails to hit, black is fine.

Here’s its analysis. What I find particularly interesting is that I felt I was winning this game as black. when actually I’m only winning 37% of the games from this position, according to XG2.