This one took me by surprise.

Over the board, I picked 16/11 9/7 – I’m ahead in the race, so playing solid and consolidating blots seemed like a good iea. But both BGBlitz (I was playing this match against True Backgammon on BGBlitz2 setting, and the tutor immediately corrected me) and XG2 have a very different opinion on this position. My move is a 0.240 blunder (“triple blunder” I hear the lady in backgammon studio heroes shout at me).

The best move is a crazy double hit that leaves 3 (!) blots in my home board, ready to be captured by my opponent’s checkers on BAR: 9/4* 7/5*.

Let’s look at the position after this move – left is my move, right is the best move.

First, XG2 concludes that after rolling this anti-joker 52, I’m ahead in the race, but behind in the game – even the best move brings me to an equity of -0.33. Also, even though I am consolidating blots, white can still hit me more often than not (19 rolls, one of them the devastting 61). And after most of these hits, white is dominating the game.

After the best move, white hits me with every 1, 4, 5 – 27 of 36 rolls, and has three double hits – 54, 51. 41. On the other side, there are 20 rolls (every 6 and every 3) that let white stay with two checkers on the bar, giving me good chances to re-enter and maybe even contine this crazy blitz.

My conclusion of all this is: I’m behind and have the option to play safely in a game that will be difficult, or go for an all-out attack and have good chances to stay in the initiative.

Still, wow, what a move. NEVER would have found it. Would you?