To run or not to run, that is the question

Have a look at this position. What would you do?

One option might be running with 23/18. But black has 11 checkers in the zone, and only two rolls – 52 and 55 don’t hit me.

Another otion might be playing it safe with 9/8 9/5.

What would you do?

It turns out that playing it safe is big blunder, costing you 0.46 points of equity (says XG2).

That really was a WTF moment for me – splitting my back checkers against so many of his builders? Running into a 4-way attack?

Only once I played 10 games from this position I noticed the difference: black is closing in fast. If I don’t act now it will build a strong prime in the next moves. But if I split and endure his hit, I have some good fighting chances because of its weaker inner board. Many hits give me return hits.

The lesson this taught me: don’t overestimate the opponent’s blitzing chances if their board is weaker than yours. Is that the lesson? Hm.

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